Pronósticos de variables climatológicas mediante los modelos de punto de cambio y Holt-Winters

Juan Camilo Valderrama-Balaguera; Hugo Fernando Castro-Silva; César Augusto Dávila Carrillo

doi:10.61799/2216-0388.986

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Forecasts of climatological variables using the change point and Holt-Winters models

Juan Camilo Valderrama-Balaguera

Universidad de Boyacá

Hugo Fernando Castro-Silva

Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia

César Augusto Dávila Carrillo

Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander

DOI: https://doi.org/10.61799/2216-0388.986

Published

2021-09-01

Issue

Vol. 11 No. S2 (2021)

Section

Articulos

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

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[1]

Valderrama-Balaguera, J.C. et al. 2021. Forecasts of climatological variables using the change point and Holt-Winters models. Mundo FESC Journal. 11, S2 (Sept. 2021), 337–352. DOI:https://doi.org/10.61799/2216-0388.986.

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https://plu.mx/plum/a/?doi=10.61799/2216-0388.986

Keywords:
Abstract

Holt-Winters, precipitation, forecasts, change point

This study analyzes a time series with daily historical data from January 1, 1989 to December 31, 2021 of the precipitation variable with a total of 12053 observations, these data are obtained from the Tunjuelito climatological station. For the research the records of the variable “precipitation” were taken into account, the objective was to analyze the trends, use the data up to December 31, 2020 to estimate a forecast for the year 2021 Holt-Winters method and the change point model, the observed data are compared with the predicted data. Finally, statistical tests are performed to contrast the degree of similarity of the data obtained from the forecasts with the observed data provided by the station. The results show that the data obtained from the change point model show higher accuracy and fit relatively well with the observed data. However, this study is considered preliminary and for the results to be considered conclusive they must be applied to a significant number of time series of meteorological variables.

Forecasts of climatological variables using the change point and Holt-Winters models

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