Export Dependence of Colombian Firms on the United States: Goods with High Commercial Vulnerability

Abstract

This article aims to identify goods with the highest degree of commercial vulnerability in the bilateral relationship between Colombia and the United States, defined as products whose export basket is 100% concentrated in this single market. The analysis is grounded in the new trade theory and firm‑heterogeneity approaches, which help explain why only a subset of firms is able to sustain such a highly dependent pattern of international insertion. Methodologically, the study employs a quantitative strategy based on anonymized DANE microdata for 2023 and 2024, allowing the identification of export patterns at the tariff‑subheading level. The findings reveal a pronounced concentration of Colombian exports in the U.S. market, particularly within the non‑mining, non‑energy segment. Within this group, flowers and aluminum manufactures stand out as the non‑commodity goods with the highest export values. Moreover, the analysis identifies 116 products, grouped by tariff chapters, that were sold exclusively to the United States during the study period and therefore require priority market‑diversification strategies in terms of destination countries.